Nassim Taleb’s book The Black Swan has enormous implications for the human sciences, including the psychology of scoping and projecting software timelines. (If you haven’t read my previous post that introduces what a Black Swan is, I recommend you do so (click here) before continuing.) I want to use this post to relate a few additional lessons that this book brings to the table.

1. Watch for the nerd effect.

The nerd effect refers to the “mental elimination of off-model risks, ...